2026 WORLD CUP GROUP STAGE PREDICTIONS: MARKET ARCHIVE

How the 2026 World Cup group-stage markets were priced across all 12 groups, what group pricing gets right, and the group-format markets live now.

Archived · Markets settledThis page covers a concluded event. The markets described here have settled and the prices are kept as a historical record. For markets you can trade today, see today’s predictions or the league hubs.

The 2026 World Cup was the first 48-team tournament, with twelve groups of four — and its group markets have now settled. This page keeps the pre-tournament group board as a record, and explains the group-market mechanics that apply to every tournament format still trading: Champions League league phase, continental cups and domestic group competitions.

Group-winner odds — closing snapshot

Group	Favorite	Poly %	Volume	Read at the time
A	Mexico	63%	$984K	Mexico at home — value is on the second-place band.
B	Argentina	47%	$741K	Tight market — Argentina aren't priced like champs here.
C	Spain	60%	$778K	Spain favored to top, but the second-place market is wide open.
D	France	73%	$871K	France steamroll candidate — 73% is high but earned.
E	England	65%	$520K	England's group exists for them. Backdoor advance for #2 is live.
F	Brazil	58%	$430K	Brazil should top — but they were 70%+ in 2022 and finished second.
G	Portugal	64%	$390K	Portugal's clearest path to topping a group in years.
H	Germany	56%	$310K	Germany not a runaway — Ecuador are sneaky-good and well priced.

Historical snapshot, June 2026. These contracts have settled.

The three patterns that transfer to any group market

1. Runaway groups (favorite 70%+)

When a favorite is priced this high, the group-winner trade is dead money — the second-place market in the same group is where the edge lives. Buying two or three cheap qualifiers for less than 50¢ combined gives you the same event exposure at a fraction of the cost.

2. Coin-flip groups (favorite at or below 50%)

A favorite under 50% signals schedule risk or squad doubt rather than weakness. These are the only groups where a single-group position has real expected value, because the market is genuinely uncertain rather than simply capped.

3. Backdoor qualification

Any format where more than two teams per group advance creates a “to qualify” market that trades far above the “to win the group” market. If you just want exposure to a team reaching the knockouts, the qualify market is usually the cheaper route per unit of probability.

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How to trade a group phase

1. Wait for the matchday-1 price. Pre-tournament prices ignore squad news. A starting-XI leak or an early injury moves group markets several cents in seconds.
2. Pair winner with to-advance. Backing the favorite to top the group and a challenger to qualify covers most of the outcome space at a combined price well under 100¢.
3. Exit after matchday 2. A team that wins its first two games typically trades above 80% to top the group. Selling there avoids dead-rubber variance on the final matchday.

Group markets trading now

The Champions League league phase is the deepest group-style soccer market currently open — qualification, top-eight finish and knockout playoff contracts all trade through the winter. See our Champions League odds tracker and the Champions League hub.

Sources

• Kalshi — soccer markets & rulebook (opens in a new tab)Live contract prices and settlement rules for CFTC-regulated event contracts.
• Polymarket — sports markets (opens in a new tab)Live order books and market resolution rules.
• CFTC — event contracts (opens in a new tab)US regulator overseeing designated contract markets that list event contracts.
• FIFA — competitions & fixtures (opens in a new tab)Official fixture, squad and tournament data used to label markets.

Frequently asked questions

Are the 2026 World Cup group markets still open?

No. The tournament has finished and every group contract has settled. The board on this page is a historical record of the closing pre-tournament prices.

How did the 48-team group format change pricing?

Twelve groups of four with the eight best third-placed teams advancing meant 'to qualify' prices sat far above 'to win the group' prices — the qualification path was much wider than in a 32-team format.

How do group-stage prediction markets work?

There are usually two markets per group: group winner (who finishes first) and to advance (who reaches the knockout round). Both settle at 100¢ or 0¢ once the group table is final.

Which group-style soccer markets can I trade now?

The Champions League league phase is the deepest one currently open, with qualification, top-eight and knockout playoff contracts trading through the winter.