MLS odds and predictions (2026)
How MLS prediction markets work, how match and MLS Cup contracts settle, where US fans can trade them and the key dates for the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs.
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SOCPREDICTSClaim21+ · T&Cs apply
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
The short answer
MLS odds on a prediction market are contract prices between 1 and 99 cents. Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so the price reads as traders' collective view of the chance. The 2026 regular season ends on Decision Day, Saturday, November 7, and the MLS Cup Playoffs run from Wednesday, November 18 to MLS Cup on Friday, December 18. A price is not a forecast or a result, and you can lose the amount you put in.
Kalshi · Trade $25 and Get $25!
SOCPREDICTS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Last checked October 14, 2026
Where things stand
- Season stage: most clubs have played 27 of their 34 regular-season matches. Play resumes after the international break with Matchday 29 on October 10 and 11.
- Clinched: Nashville SC is the only club that has clinched a playoff place so far.
- Eastern Conference, top nine: Nashville SC (60 points), New England Revolution (46), Inter Miami CF (46), Chicago Fire FC (45), Charlotte FC (43), Philadelphia Union (39), Orlando City (34), Red Bull New York (33) and New York City FC (33). FC Cincinnati is level on 33 points in tenth place with a match in hand.
- Western Conference, top nine: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (50 points), St. Louis CITY SC (47), FC Dallas (47), San Jose Earthquakes (45), Houston Dynamo FC (44), LAFC (41), Seattle Sounders FC (38), Colorado Rapids (36) and LA Galaxy (36). Portland Timbers, Real Salt Lake and San Diego FC are next on 32 points.
- Supporters' Shield and Golden Boot: Nashville SC leads the overall table by 10 points. Lionel Messi leads the league with 21 goals. Inter Miami CF is the defending MLS Cup champion.
- Kalshi listings: a match winner market with three outcomes (home, away, tie) on each upcoming MLS match, plus spread, total goals, both teams to score, correct score, first-half winner and team total markets. Season-long markets: MLS Cup Champion, Eastern Conference Champion, Western Conference Champion and MLS Golden Boot.
- Polymarket US listings: a three-way match winner market on this weekend's MLS matches, Major League Soccer Champion (the MLS Cup winner), MLS Eastern Conference Champion and MLS Western Conference Champion.
- ProphetX: check the app for current listings.
- Access: availability varies by state. See where you can trade in the US.
Last checked: October 9, 2026
MLS Today
This Week
2026 MLS key dates
| Date | What happens | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Saturday, November 7, 2026 | Decision Day | Final regular-season matchday. Eastern Conference matches start at 4:00 p.m. ET and Western Conference matches at 7:00 p.m. ET |
| Wednesday, November 18, 2026 | Wild Card matches | No. 8 against No. 9 in each conference, one match, hosted by the higher seed |
| Friday, November 20 to Wednesday, December 2, 2026 | Round One | Best-of-3 series. The first club to win two matches advances |
| Saturday, December 5 and Sunday, December 6, 2026 | Conference Semifinals | Single matches, hosted by the higher seed |
| Friday, December 11 and Saturday, December 12, 2026 | Conference Finals | Single matches, hosted by the higher seed |
| Friday, December 18, 2026 | MLS Cup | One match, hosted by the finalist with the better regular-season record |
Dates come from Major League Soccer's key dates and schedule information for the Audi 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs. MLS says the dates are subject to change. Our MLS Cup Playoffs 2026 guide covers the format, the bracket and the tiebreak rules round by round.
How do MLS prediction markets work?
Every MLS fixture in the tables above is priced by traders, not by a bookmaker. You are trading with other people on an exchange, and the price moves as they buy and sell.
- Match winner (three-way): there is a separate contract on the home side, the away side and the tie. Each pays $1 if it is right and $0 if it is not.
- Season-long markets: MLS Cup winner, conference champion and Golden Boot contracts stay open for months and move with every result.
- Reading a price: 60 cents on the home side means the market gives that team about a 60% chance. That example is an illustration, not a live price.
- Selling early: you do not have to hold a contract to the final whistle. You can sell it at the current market price if another trader is willing to buy.
- Fees: each exchange sets its own fees, so check the fee schedule in the app before you trade.
Our guide to how prediction markets work goes through the basics, and the match winner and outrights pages explain those two market types in more depth.
How does an MLS market settle?
Settlement follows the written rules of each market, and those rules differ by platform. This is what the rules say on the markets listed today.
- Kalshi match winner: the result is taken after 90 minutes plus stoppage time and does not include extra time or penalties. If the match ends level, the Tie contract resolves to Yes. If a match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours away, the rules say the market resolves to a fair price.
- Polymarket US match winner: the market settles to the winner at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or to Tie if the match is level. If a match is postponed and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks, the rules say it settles to the last fair market price. The outcome is sourced from MLS.
- MLS Cup winner: Kalshi's contract resolves to Yes if the club is the 2026 MLS Cup champion. Polymarket US's contract asks whether the club will win the 2026 MLS Cup, and it settles to $0 once a club is eliminated.
- Conference champion: these contracts are about the playoffs, not the regular-season table. Kalshi's rules refer to the conference champion in the MLS playoffs, and Polymarket US's contract settles on the winner of the Conference Final.
- Golden Boot (Kalshi): the contract resolves on who leads MLS in goals for the 2026 regular season. Playoff goals do not count.
The 90-minute rule matters in the playoffs, where a level match goes to extra time or penalties. A playoff match can be settled as a tie under these rules even though one club advances. Read the rules on each playoff market when it is listed.
Where can US fans trade MLS?
For sports, start with ProphetX, then Kalshi, then Polymarket US. Kalshi's and Polymarket US's minimum age is 18, and ProphetX's is 18 or the local age of majority; we recommend 21+. Novig is a further option on this site for readers aged 21 or over.
| Platform | What it is | Access notes |
|---|---|---|
| ProphetX | A CFTC-designated contract market for sports | Not available in Nevada |
| Kalshi | A CFTC-designated contract market with sports, politics and other categories | Sports contracts are blocked by court order in Nevada, Michigan and Washington |
| Polymarket US | A CFTC-designated exchange that US residents use through an app | Availability varies by state |
Availability varies by state and can change with court rulings. Our US page explains where you can trade, and the platform comparison lists the eligible states for each sign-up offer. A platform being open in your state and a listing for one specific match are separate questions, so confirm the market in the app first.
Readers outside the United States can follow the prices on this page. The platforms and offers are for US residents only.
Sources
- Major League Soccer, Audi 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs: Key dates & schedule information, checked October 9, 2026.
- Major League Soccer, Audi 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs: Format & how it works, checked October 9, 2026.
- Major League Soccer, 2026 standings, checked October 9, 2026.
- Major League Soccer, Nashville SC tracker: Supporters' Shield and MLS points record, checked October 9, 2026.
- Major League Soccer, Matchday 29 preview, checked October 9, 2026.
- Kalshi market data and market rules for the MLS markets, checked October 9, 2026.
- Polymarket US market data and market rules for the MLS markets, checked October 9, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
What are MLS odds on a prediction market?
They are contract prices between 1 and 99 cents, set by traders on an exchange. A contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so the price reads as the market's view of the chance.
When do the 2026 MLS playoffs start?
The Wild Card matches are on Wednesday, November 18, 2026. Round One, a best-of-3 series, starts on Friday, November 20. Our MLS Cup Playoffs 2026 guide has the full schedule.
When is MLS Cup 2026?
MLS Cup is on Friday, December 18, 2026. The finalist with the better regular-season record hosts the match.
How many teams make the MLS playoffs?
Eighteen clubs qualify: the top nine in the Eastern Conference and the top nine in the Western Conference. Seeds 1 to 7 go straight to Round One, and No. 8 plays No. 9 in a Wild Card match.
Does an MLS match winner market include extra time or penalties?
The match winner markets listed on Kalshi and Polymarket US settle on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A level match settles as a tie. Read the rules on each playoff market, because a club can advance on penalties after a tie.
Are prediction-market prices the same as sportsbook odds?
They work differently. A prediction-market price is set by traders on an exchange and reads as a percentage chance. A sportsbook sets its own line. We do not compare the two on this site.
Where can I trade MLS matches in the US?
ProphetX, Kalshi and the Polymarket US app are the platforms we cover, in that order for sports. Availability varies by state. Our US page explains where you can trade.
21+ · T&Cs apply · Terms
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.