OUTRIGHT ODDS

How Outright Markets Work

An outright contract pays $1 if the named outcome happens by season end. A price of 38¢ on "Manchester City to win the Premier League" means the market gives them a 38% chance — and you pay 38¢ to claim the dollar if it lands.

Outrights move slowly until they don't. A title race tightens after one bad weekend; a Golden Boot favourite drifts after a hamstring tweak. Because the contract runs months, even small probability shifts are worth real cents — outright markets are where patient analysts find edge. For tournament-specific reading, see this World Cup outrights guide.

Keep exploring

• World Cup Outrights

  Tournament & golden boot

• Match Winner Odds

  Per-fixture 1X2

• Over / Under 2.5

  Goal-market signals

• League Pages

  Per-league outrights & fixtures

• Player Profiles

  World Cup stars to watch

Sources

• Kalshi — soccer markets & rulebookLive contract prices and settlement rules for CFTC-regulated event contracts.
• Polymarket — sports marketsLive order books and market resolution rules.
• CFTC — event contractsUS regulator overseeing designated contract markets that list event contracts.
• FIFA — competitions & fixturesOfficial fixture, squad and tournament data used to label markets.

Frequently asked questions

What is an outright bet in soccer?

A wager on a season- or tournament-long outcome: league winner, top scorer, relegation, World Cup champion. It settles at the end of the competition, not after a single match.

Where do these outright prices come from?

Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets. Both list real-money contracts that settle on the official competition outcome.

How do I convert a cent price to decimal odds?

Divide 1 by the cent price as a decimal. 25¢ = 1 / 0.25 = 4.0 decimal odds.

When do outright markets settle?

When the underlying competition officially ends — the league trophy presentation, the final match, or the season's last fixture.