HOW PREDICTION MARKETS WORK

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is an exchange where people trade contracts on future events. A contract pays $1 if the event happens, $0 if it doesn't. The price it trades at — say, 65¢ — is the crowd's live estimate of the probability. Soccer markets list one contract per outcome: home win, draw, away win.

ProphetX, Kalshi and Polymarket US

ProphetX is a CFTC-regulated, sports-first exchange where traders set prices against each other; check the app for which soccer leagues are open.

Kalshi is a US prediction exchange regulated by the CFTC. You deposit US dollars, buy contracts that settle in cash. Liquidity is highest on US-coverage events (MLS, World Cup, EPL highlights).

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market; US traders use its CFTC-regulated app, which trades in dollars. Coverage is broader — every major European league lists per-match markets — but the user base skews international.

How exchange prices differ from a bookmaker's line

A bookmaker builds its margin (the "vig") into every line, so the implied chances of all outcomes add up to more than 100%. On an exchange, buyers and sellers trade with each other, so the prices of the home, draw and away contracts usually add up to close to $1. Exchanges charge their fees separately, so compare the fee you would actually pay, not just the price.

Are they legal?

In the US, Kalshi, ProphetX and the Polymarket US app run on CFTC-regulated exchanges: Kalshi is open in 47 states + D.C., ProphetX and Polymarket US in 49 states + D.C. (not Nevada). Whether states can apply their own gambling laws to sports contracts is still being argued in court, so state rules can differ from the federal position. We cover US platforms only. For the dated record, see our US federal timeline of court rulings and CFTC designations.

Keep exploring

• Our Methodology

  How we source & rank prices

• Today's Predictions

  See it live

• Match Winner Odds

  1X2 explained on real games

• World Cup Predictions

  Outright winner & golden boot

• About Predictions Soccer

  Who we are

Sources

• Kalshi — soccer markets & rulebookLive contract prices and settlement rules for CFTC-regulated event contracts.
• Polymarket — sports marketsLive order books and market resolution rules.
• CFTC — event contractsUS regulator overseeing designated contract markets that list event contracts.
• FIFA — competitions & fixturesOfficial fixture, squad and tournament data used to label markets.

Frequently asked questions

What does 65¢ on a soccer team mean?

The market gives that team a 65% chance of winning. The $1 contract trades at 65¢ — you risk 65¢ to win 35¢ if they win.

How is Kalshi different from a sportsbook?

Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange, not a bookmaker. There's no house edge — you trade with other users, and Kalshi takes a small fee.

Are prediction markets legal in the US?

Kalshi (47 states + D.C.) and the Polymarket US app (49 states + D.C.) are CFTC-regulated exchanges open to US users. Whether states can apply their gambling laws to sports contracts is still being decided: at the preliminary stage the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi (April 2026) and the Ninth and Sixth Circuits sided with the states (August and September 2026), with Supreme Court petitions pending.

How do I convert a prediction-market price to decimal odds?

Divide 1 by the cent price as a decimal. 50¢ → 1/0.50 = 2.0 decimal. 25¢ → 1/0.25 = 4.0 decimal.

How accurate are prediction markets at soccer?

Across multiple seasons, favourites win at close to the rate the cent price implies. Markets consistently outperform tipster sites and most statistical models on long-run accuracy.