Soccer Prediction Market Glossary: Every Term Explained

There are 29 terms below. Prices in the examples are made up to show the idea. They are not current prices.

A to C

Ask

The lowest price at which someone is offering to sell a contract right now. If you buy straight away, the ask is the price you pay.

Bid

The highest price someone is offering to pay for a contract right now. If you sell straight away, the bid is the price you get.

BTTS (both teams to score)

A contract on whether both teams score at least once in a match, whatever the result. See our BTTS markets guide.

Capocannoniere

Italian for top scorer. It is the name given to Serie A's leading scorer of the season, and markets on that race are top-scorer contracts.

Contract

What you buy: a claim on one outcome, such as "Arsenal win". It pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not.

G to L

Golden Boot

The name for the top-scorer award in several competitions, including the World Cup and the Premier League. A Golden Boot contract settles on that competition's top scorer under the contract's own rules, including its rule for ties. Polymarket US's Premier League Golden Boot market, for example, splits the $1 between players who tie for the most goals.

Implied probability

The price read as a chance. Example: a contract at 65 cents implies about a 65% chance. That is an example, not a current price.

Last traded price

The price of the most recent trade. On a quiet contract it can be hours old, so check the bid and the ask as well.

League phase

The first stage of the Champions League since 2024-25: one table of 36 clubs, each playing eight matches. The top eight go straight to the round of 16, clubs placed 9th to 24th meet in a two-legged knockout play-off, and clubs placed 25th or lower are out.

Liguilla

The knockout round that ends each Liga MX tournament, the Apertura and the Clausura. In 2026-27 the top eight clubs after 17 matchdays play quarter-finals, semi-finals and a final. Our Liga MX guide has the details.

Limit order

An order that names the worst price you will accept. It fills right away if a matching order is already there at that price or better, and any unfilled part rests on the order book until someone takes it or you cancel it.

Liquidity

How much is available to trade near the current price. In a liquid market a large order barely moves the price. In a thin one, a single order can move it several cents.

M to O

Maker and taker

A maker's order rests on the order book. A taker's order fills straight away against it. Exchanges often charge the two differently, and the fee section below this list has each platform's rule.

Market order

An order that fills right away at the best price available. It is fast, and on a thin contract it can fill at a worse price than you expected.

Match winner (1X2)

The three-way match contract: home win (1), draw or tie (X), away win (2). See our match winner guide.

No-vig price

A set of prices rescaled so that all outcomes add up to exactly 100%. It lets you compare the market's view of each outcome without the spread. Also called a normalized price.

NWSL Shield

The trophy for the NWSL club with the best record at the end of the regular season. It is separate from the NWSL Championship, which is decided in the playoffs.

Order book

The live list of buy orders (bids) and sell orders (asks) at each price. Prices come from other traders' orders.

Outright

A season-long or tournament-long contract, such as league winner or top scorer. See our outright markets guide.

Over/under 2.5

A contract on total goals in a match. Over wins with three or more goals, under with two or fewer. See our over/under guide.

Overround

The amount by which the asking prices of all outcomes in a market add up to more than $1. It is the cost of buying every outcome at once, and it mostly reflects the spread.

P to Y

Pichichi

The award for La Liga's top scorer of the season. The Spanish sports daily Marca created it in 1953 and named it after the Athletic Club striker Rafael Moreno Aranzadi, known as Pichichi.

Position

The contracts you hold in a market. You can usually sell before settlement, if another trader will buy, to lock in a gain or cut a loss.

Price

What a contract costs, between 1 and 99 cents. Example: a contract at 65 cents costs 65 cents and pays $1 if it is right.

Regular time

90 minutes plus stoppage time. Kalshi's and Polymarket US's soccer match markets that we checked settle on regular time, and extra time and penalties do not count. Read the rules for cup and playoff games.

Settlement

The moment the outcome is known and each contract pays $1 or $0, based on the source named in the contract's rules.

Spread

The gap between the bid and the ask. A wide spread usually means a thin market and a higher cost to get in and out. On some platforms "spread" also names a market on the margin of victory.

Supporters' Shield

The MLS trophy for the club with the best regular-season record. It is separate from MLS Cup, which is decided in the playoffs.

Yes and No

The two sides of most contracts. Buying No on "Arsenal win" pays $1 if Arsenal draw or lose.

What do the exchanges charge makers and takers?

• ProphetX: ProphetX charges a 2% trading fee on net gains per market on straight trades (fee page version 1.3, October 12, 2026). Parlays follow a separate fee schedule.
• Kalshi: Kalshi charges a transaction fee based on the expected earnings of the contract. Some Kalshi markets also charge a maker fee on resting orders, taken only when the order is filled. The order ticket shows the fee before you confirm.
• Polymarket US: Since October 2026 Polymarket US charges a taker fee on orders that fill straight away, worked out from the price: on standard markets it is highest for contracts near 50 cents (about $1.74 per 100 contracts) and falls toward 1 cent and 99 cents. Orders that rest on the book pay no fee; rebates on them are limited to very high-volume traders from October 19, 2026.

Fees last checked: October 13, 2026

Where do these terms apply?

All of these markets trade on exchanges, so whether you can use them depends on where you are. It depends on the state and the platform. As of October 13, 2026, Kalshi's sports contracts are blocked by court order in three states: Nevada, Michigan and Washington. Elsewhere the law is unsettled. Federal appeals courts have split on sports event contracts: the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi on April 6, 2026, and the Ninth Circuit (August 28, 2026) and the Sixth Circuit (September 25, 2026) sided with the states. Kalshi asked the full Sixth Circuit to rehear the case on October 9, 2026; the court has not ruled. Three Supreme Court petitions (Nos. 26-299, 26-338 and 26-344) are pending and none has been granted. Where a platform still takes customers in a state with an open case, we call the status Available — dispute pending. The sign-up screen is the final word for your state.

Where can US fans trade soccer contracts?

ProphetX leads our list for soccer. New users: Trade $50, Earn $75! with code SOCPREDICTS, valid in 49 states + D.C. (per the partner's offer terms, checked October 14, 2026). Only filled trades that open a position at $0.80 or below count toward the $50. The $75 comes as three $25 installments: the first within 24 hours of qualifying, and the second and third on day 7 and day 14 only if the previous $25 was fully used on new positions at $0.80 or below. Otherwise they are forfeited. Offer terms apply.

Then Kalshi: Trade $25 and Get $25! with code SOCPREDICTS, valid in 47 states + D.C. Then Polymarket US: Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus! with code SOCPREDICTS, valid in 49 states + D.C. Offer terms apply. The state counts are each partner's own, checked October 14, 2026.

ProphetX's minimum age is 18, or the local age of majority if higher. Kalshi's and Polymarket US's is 18. We recommend 21+. Trade only what you can afford to lose.

Frequently asked questions

What does BTTS mean on a prediction market?

Both teams to score. The contract pays $1 if both teams score at least once in the match, whatever the final result.

What is the difference between the price and the implied probability?

They are the same number read two ways. A contract at 40 cents costs 40 cents and implies about a 40% chance.

Why do the prices of all outcomes not add up to exactly $1?

Because of the gap between bids and asks. The amount above $1 is the overround. Rescaling the prices to add up to 100% gives the no-vig price.

Can I sell a soccer contract before the match ends?

Usually, if another trader will buy it. You sell at the current bid, which may be higher or lower than what you paid.

Do soccer match contracts include extra time and penalties?

Usually not. The Kalshi and Polymarket US match markets we checked settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Read the rules for cup and playoff games.

What is the difference between a maker and a taker?

A maker's order rests on the order book until someone fills it. A taker's order fills straight away against a resting order. Exchanges often charge the two differently.